Guest post on Naked Capitalism. Read the whole thing, but here's the summary:

#1 Success of Geithner's Plan: in my view, Barack Obama's fortunes depend in the main on Geithner's Public-Private Partnership Plan. If this plan is unsuccessful, Obama is sunk. The plan has merits, but many deficiencies as well.

#2 Efficacy of Economic Stimulus: I have said often that Obama's stimulus will not be sufficient given the state of the economy. Recently revised budget projections from the Congressional Budget Office confirm this -- the budget deficit, therefore, will be significantly worse than originally projected. Nevertheless, the Japanese experience in the 1990s demonstrates that even a depressionary economy can experience brief respites from economic turmoil. This could be Obama's saving grace.

#3 Ability to connect with disenfranchised: Populist sentiment is running high because people have finally realized that the last quarter-century or more has seen a massive divergence of economic fortune between the wealthy and everyone else. In essence, while credit was flowing and asset prices rose, ordinary Americans appeared to prosper along with the wealthy. However, now that credit revulsion has replaced easy money, it is plain to all that standards of living will decrease. President Obama would be wise to use his inner Bill Clinton and demonstrate he can "feel your pain" or he risks being perceived as aloof.

#4 Will in setting political agenda: The Republican party was in tatters after the 2008 election, giving Barack Obama a free hand. In my view, Obama has grossly miscalculated politically on numerous occasions. This has cost him political capital. Whether he can reassert his agenda now -- with Democrats in Congress responding to populist sentiment out of self-preservation and the Republican party newly reinvigorated -- remains to be seen.