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My primary vote may matter this year

Thank you Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma (!), and of course Vermont. And a nod to Massachusetts; that one was close and it's a wash in terms of delegates.

The old narrative was that Bernie was going to get crushed in Nevada and South Carolina and then he would lose all his momentum and get knocked out on Super Tuesday. Well, he actually did ok in Nevada (he did get crushed in South Carolina). But the bigger problem with the old narrative was that the assumption was, like a typical insurgent, Bernie would be out of money by now and without the momentum he'd have to drop out. However, that's not what's happening. Bernie is being supported by a million+ small donors, and he's got enough money to go all the way to the convention. The fact that he won some Super Tuesday states is really just gravy. The calendar gets much better for him going forward. Most of the South, which seems to be Hillary's stronghold, has voted at this point. Granted she's picked up a decent delegate lead, especially thanks to Texas, and she's still definitely the favorite to win, but it's not over. And even if Hillary continues to add to her lead, there'd be no point in dropping out until California, which has 20% of the delegates. And California votes at nearly the end, at the same time as New Jersey. So i think for the first time ever, i get to vote in a presidential primary and have it actually potentially mean something. And for a candidate that i think is pretty awesome.

By fnord12 | March 2, 2016, 7:36 AM | Liberal Outrage


I've got two week before I cast my protest vote - I've been voting since 1983, and I don't recall ever having the primary race still in real contention by the time I got my say, and I think I've never voted for the front-runner...

When's your primary?

I don't want to dampen your enthusiasm -- I think it's great that you're participating in your state primary -- but I feel like I should manage your expectations a bit.

It's true that Sanders won big in four states, but three of those (the ones that aren't OK) are very liberal compares to the remaining states that have yet to primary. Meanwhile he continues to get crushed anywhere with black constituencies, and the black vote is increasing while the youth vote (where Sanders shines) isn't. And, don't forget that Hillary beat a much stronger candidate in '08 in the big blue states of CA, NY, and FL. Add the superdelegates into the mix, and Clinton is basically inevitable, unless she gets struck by lightning or fails to repudiate David Duke or whatever.

That said, by "mean something" maybe you mean your vote is helping to drive the party and Clinton's platform leftward, which it definitely is, and which ain't nothin'. Also, she's a much better campaigner for having gone through a primary fight that required effort but was, for modern politics, inspiringly clean. (Not that she needs to be a tactical genius to beat the GOP this year...)

@BU, Jersey and CA vote on June 7th, along with Montana, New Mexico, and the Dakotas (all of which could be good for Bernie). The only primary after that is DC, which is on June 14th.

@Andrew F, As i noted in the post, i'm well aware that Bernie is the underdog. I'm curious to see if the "black vote" is as monolithic as pundits say, as opposed to, say, Hillary having strength with the "southern black vote" specifically, for example. Bernie has gotten some endorsements in New York and Michigan that may indicate support in those states, and he's got the support of the anti-Rahm movement in Chicago. So Bernie may do better in northern cities than he did in the south with black voters. The dynamics in California and New York may turn out differently this year in general. Hillary won NH in 2008 but got crushed there this year. It's potentially a different race. But we will see. Trying to guess how things will play out is horserace pundit stuff. I just want to see Bernie take it as far as he can go, whether that's push the conversation to the left or, just maybe, actually win. My main point with this post was pushing back against the numerous articles that sprang up like mushrooms overnight saying the Bernie needs to drop out.

Oh, yeah, I definitely don't think Bernie should (or will) drop out. He's had a tremendous impact.

No, he's in there for a platform of populist fairness measures, and I still think he never intended to be President - and I don't think he can win at this point; Mrs. Clinton is a terrible campaigner, but has no problem sewing up establishment support against an Independent. He's already won, considering, as I've said before; his influence as a Senator alone is multiplies many times over after this.

I'm still casting my protest vote for Mr. Sanders, because it matters how well he did anyway, come the convention and the platform fights. He's definitely not in the pocket of the Bossmen, and I actually think he says what he really believes.

-Then I'll go home and pray for HRC, for obvious reasons...

Bernie doesn't have to win the nomination (and whilst he's been performing well, he's some way behind where he needs to be to win it) to have an impact. Apparently, if he gets 25% of delegates, he can get a minority report at the convention, which could force Clinton to include at least some of his policy in her platform. Whilst a majority of delegates is unlikely, 25% will be quite easy to get, given that all of the Democrat primaries allocate their delegates proportionately.

Incidentally, a little known Bernie fact is that his brother is an activist for the Green Party of England and Wales.


(Also what I think Kasich's still in for, unless he's running for Vice President.)

It looks even more like Hillary will get indicated. Justice is beginning to offer people immunity.

Unless the Democrats want their nominee to be under that burden during the general election, Bernie will be the only other candidate unless her delegates decide to nominate someone else at the convention at the last minute.

BTW, party platforms nowadays don't mean anything. They haven't in almost fifty years.

Just came across something election-related that you will really appreciate fnord.



That was great, Steve. Perfect ending.